Don't tell me the 'currency war' is bad for European exports - the one graph version

Don't tell me the 'currency war' is bad for European exports - the one graph version
It is said that Europe is the biggest "victim" in what is said to be an international 'currency war' (it is really no war at all, but global monetary easing) as the euro has strengthened significantly on the back of the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan having stepped up monetary easing. However, the euro zone is no victim - to claim so is to reason from a price change as Scott Sumner would say. The price here of course is the euro exchange rate. The 'currency war worriers' claim that the strengthening is a disaster for European exports. What they of course forget is to ask is why the euro has strengthened. The euro is stronger not because of monetary tightening in the euro zone, but because of monetary easing everywhere else. Easier monetary policies in the US and Japan obviously boost domestic demand in those countries and with it also imports. Higher American and Japanese import growth is certainly good news for European exports and that likely is much more important than the lose of "competitiveness" resulting from the stronger euro. But have a look at European exporters think. The graph below is the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for euro zone new export orders. The graph is clear - optimism is spiking! The boost from improved Japanese and American growth prospects is clearly what is on the mind of European exporters rather than the strong euro. PMIexport euro zone


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