Never reason from a price change - the case of commodity prices

Never reason from a price change - the case of commodity prices
The big story in the financial markets this week is the continued decline in commodity prices - particularly the drop in gold prices is getting a lot of attention. The drop in commodity prices have led some people to speculate that this is an indication that the global economy is slowing. That may or may not be the case. However, as Scott Sumner like to remind us - we should never reason from a price change.  We have to remember that the price of commodities can drop for two reasons - either demand for commodities declined (that would be an indication that the global economy is slowing) or because of a positive supply shock (that on the other hand would be good news for the global economy). The good news graph... Supply demand supply shock And the bad news graph... Supply demand demand shock This is not the place to speculate about whether we are in the "bad news" or the "good news", but global markets are nonetheless telling us that this is not the time to panic - global stock prices have been trending upward, while commodity prices have been declining. MSCI CRB --------- David Glasner also comments on the gold price - he has more interesting things to say than I have.


WORLD LEADING ADVISORY SPECIALISING IN THIS TOPIC

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