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Roth’s Monetary and Fiscal Framework for Economic Stability

Roth’s Monetary and Fiscal Framework for Economic Stability

Steve Roth over at www.asymptosis.com has a comment on my previous post ”Be right for the right reasons”, which in itself was a comment on Richard Williamson who had commented on one of my previous comments (“NGDP targeting is not a Keynesian business cycle policy”) so you might consider this as ponzi-commenting…Anyway, Steve’s comment deserves an answer. He has some intriguing ideas.

Be right for the right reasons
NGDP targeting is not a Keynesian business cycle policy

NGDP targeting is not a Keynesian business cycle policy

I have come to realize that many when they hear about NGDP targeting think that it is in someway a counter-cyclical policy – a (feedback) rule to stabilize real GDP (RGDP). This is far from the case from case and should instead be seen as a rule to ensure monetary neutrality.

Use googlenomics to track NGDP

Use googlenomics to track NGDP

Anybody who has been working on a trading floor will know the adrenalin rush one will experience when one of the major sets of macroeconomic data is published – for example US nonfarm payroll numbers. I think most dealers and analysts will recognise this and will acknowledge that it could become nearly addictive to get that feeling. However, I think that this might be a thing of the past due to the technological development.

Repeating a (not so) crazy idea - or if Chuck Norris was ECB chief

Repeating a (not so) crazy idea - or if Chuck Norris was ECB chief

Recently I in a post came up with what I described as a crazy idea - that might in fact not be so crazy.

If just David Glasner was ECB chief...

If just David Glasner was ECB chief...

The all-knowing David Glasner has a fantastic post on his blog uneasymoney.com putting the euro crisis into historical perspective. Glasner - as do I - see very strong parallels between the European crisis of the 1930s and the present crisis and it the same "gold standard mentality" which is at the heart of the crisis. Too tight monetary policy and not overly loose fiscal policy is really the main cause for the European crisis.

Roubini of Central and Eastern Europe? Me?
Gustav Cassel foresaw the Great Depression

Gustav Cassel foresaw the Great Depression

I might be a complete monetary nerd, but I truly happy when I receive a new working paper in the mail from Douglas Irwin on Gustav Cassel. That happened tonight. I have been waiting for the final version of the paper for a couple weeks. Doug was so nice to send me a “preview” a couple a weeks ago. However, now the paper has been published on Dartmouth College’s website.

Kelly Evans interviews Scott Sumner

Kelly Evans interviews Scott Sumner

The Wall Street Journal's Kelly Evans interviews Scott Sumner

Scott’s prediction market

Scott’s prediction market

Scott Sumner has long argued that the Federal Reserve or the US Treasury should help set-up a NGDP futures markets and conduct monetary policy based on market expectations of NGDP. This is a great idea, but so far it does not really look like the Fed is interested in the idea.

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