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Oil exporters do not devalue to boost exports, but to stabilize public finances

Oil exporters do not devalue to boost exports, but to stabilize public finances

Yesterday Azerbaijan's central bank gave up its pegged exchange rate regime and floated the Manat. The Manat plummeted immediately and was essentially halved in value in yesterday's trading.

The 'Dollar Bloc' continues to fall apart - Azerbaijan floats the Manat

The 'Dollar Bloc' continues to fall apart - Azerbaijan floats the Manat

I have for sometime argued that the quasi-currency union 'Dollar Bloc' is not an Optimal Currency Area and that it therefore is doomed to fall apart.

Talking to Ambrose about the Fed

Talking to Ambrose about the Fed

I have been talking to The Telegraph's  about the Fed's decision to hike interest rates (see here):

Bank of Canada at the Zero Lower Bound: The Export Price Norm to the rescue

Bank of Canada at the Zero Lower Bound: The Export Price Norm to the rescue

The continued drop in the oil prices have caused the Bank of Canada to reconsider whether it should cut it key policy rate - the Overnight rate - and in a speech earlier this week BoC governor Stephen Poloz said that he would not rule out negative interest rates in Canada even though he did not expect it and he also voiced some worries about negative rates in general.

It's the economy stupid - this is why Le Pen won

It's the economy stupid - this is why Le Pen won

I have argued it again and again - the continued crisis in the European economy is the primary source of political radicalisation, populism, extremism and outright fascism.

Coase was right - the one graph version

Coase was right - the one graph version

I recently came across two indices, which are measuring two on the surface unrelated things - property rights and environmental standards across different countries.

The very unpleasant echo from the 1930s

The very unpleasant echo from the 1930s

I am trying very hard not to become alarmist, but I must admit that I see very little positive news at the moment and I continue to see three elements - monetary policy failure/weak growth, the rise of extremist politics (Trump, Orban, Erdogan, Putin, ISIS etc) and sharply rising geopolitical tensions coming together to a very unpleasant cocktail that brings back memories of the 1930s and the run up to the second World War.

My speaking engagements in Q1 - do you want to see me?

My speaking engagements in Q1 - do you want to see me?

I have been lucky to be very busy since I resigned from Danske Bank back in May - both with my advisory business (Markets & Money Advisory), my commentary and my speaking engagements and all indications are that I will continue to be busy for the rest of the year, but there is still a bit of space in the calendar in Q1 2016 - so if you need me to speak at a seminar or at a conference you might still be able to book me.

My continued love affair with Iceland and my column in Fréttablaðið

My continued love affair with Iceland and my column in Fréttablaðið

I have since September been writing a weekly column in the Icelandic daily Fréttablaðið. Obviously most of my regular readers of this blog do not read Icelandic (neither do I), but I am sure Google Translate will do a decent job translating Icelandic into English.

St. Louis Fed: "0% probability that inflation will average more than 2.5% over the next 12 months"

St. Louis Fed: "0% probability that inflation will average more than 2.5% over the next 12 months"

Laura E. Jackson, Kevin L. Kliesen, and Michael T. Owyang of the St. Louis Federal Reserve have constructed a new measure they call the price pressures measure (PPM).

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