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I am trying very hard not to become alarmist, but I must admit that I see very little positive news at the moment and I continue to see three elements - monetary policy failure/weak growth, the rise of extremist politics (Trump, Orban, Erdogan, Putin, ISIS etc) and sharply rising geopolitical tensions coming together to a very unpleasant cocktail that brings back memories of the 1930s and the run up to the second World War.
I have been lucky to be very busy since I resigned from Danske Bank back in May - both with my advisory business (Markets & Money Advisory), my commentary and my speaking engagements and all indications are that I will continue to be busy for the rest of the year, but there is still a bit of space in the calendar in Q1 2016 - so if you need me to speak at a seminar or at a conference you might still be able to book me.
I have since September been writing a weekly column in the Icelandic daily Fréttablaðið. Obviously most of my regular readers of this blog do not read Icelandic (neither do I), but I am sure Google Translate will do a decent job translating Icelandic into English.
Laura E. Jackson, Kevin L. Kliesen, and Michael T. Owyang of the St. Louis Federal Reserve have constructed a new measure they call the price pressures measure (PPM).
As the followers of my blog would know I recently did a 11 day speaking tour in the US. I want to share a bit of that with my readers.
Last week I visited and gave two lectures at Southern Methodist University in Dallas. Among other things I had the great pleasure of spending time with Ryan Murphy who is a Research Assistant Professor at the O'Neil Center for Global Markets and Freedom at SMU and I had the opportunity to talk to Ryan about a new paper that has just been published.
The legendary Bill Gross - formerly of PIMCO and these days Janus Capital - does not believe in a hike from the Federal Reserve this year. This is what he has to say about the issue according to a Tweet from Janus Capital:
For years my friend Scott Sumner has been working on his book on the Great Depression. It has taken some time to get it out, but now it will soon be available (December).
I am in the US on a speaking tour at the moment so I have not had a lot of time for blogging, but I thought that I just wanted to share one alarming macroeconomic number with my readers - the sharp drop in Chinese nominal GDP growth.
A lot have been said and written about Angus Deaton who today has been awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics and I don't have much to add to that other than just saying that I came across a great quote from his latest book "The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality" that perfectly well sums up my view on economic development and what policies developed nations should pursue to help the populations in developing nations: