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Imagine that the euro had never been introduced and we instead had had freely floating European currencies and each country would have been free to choose their own monetary policy and fiscal policy.
A history of political dysfunctionality, corruption, military coups, military conflict with a neighboring country, large current deficits and weak fiscal management.
This week I spoke at Camp Alphaville in London. It was good fun. Among other things I had great fun arguing with my good friend Lorcan Roche Kelly about Greece. As usual Lorcan and I do not agree on anytihing.
Have a look at the latest numbers from Hypermind's prediction market on the likelihood of Greece leaving the euro in 2015.
It has been characteristic about the Great Recession that so relatively few countries have defaulted given the scale of the financial distress and the slump in economic activity. But it now seems to be changing. Greece this weekend moved dramatically closer to a sovereign default and the Ukrainian government has signaled that it could effectively default in July.
In the future I will be writing a weekly column for the Danish business daily Børsen. The first column appears in today's edition of the newspaper (you can read the article in Danish here). International news outlets and newspapers interested a syndication deal on my new weekly column are welcome to contact me (email@example.com).
This is from the New York Times today:
Most indications are that Greece this weekend effectively has been pushed over edge by the collective failures of Greek and European policy makers. The combined forces of an European monetary straitjacket, the lack of a coherent European sovereign debt crisis resolution mechanism and weak Greek institutional structures and a lot of badwill on both sides of the issue in the end did it.
Ever since I started my blog in 2011 Greece has been on the verge of banking crisis, sovereign default and euro exit. It now looks as if we might get all of that very soon and very quickly.