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Greece versus Turkey: It's the exchange rate exchange rate regime stupid!

Greece versus Turkey: It's the exchange rate exchange rate regime stupid!

A history of political dysfunctionality, corruption, military coups, military conflict with a neighboring country, large current deficits and weak fiscal management.

"You are both gentlemen...or something" - debating Greece with Lorcan Roche Kelly

"You are both gentlemen...or something" - debating Greece with Lorcan Roche Kelly

This week I spoke at Camp Alphaville in London. It was good fun. Among other things I had great fun arguing with my good friend Lorcan Roche Kelly about Greece. As usual Lorcan and I do not agree on anytihing.

Hypermind prediction: Nearly 50% probability of Grexit in 2015

Hypermind prediction: Nearly 50% probability of Grexit in 2015

Have a look at the latest numbers from Hypermind's prediction market on the likelihood of Greece leaving the euro in 2015.

The race to default...is it time for 'Puerto Ricixt'?

The race to default...is it time for 'Puerto Ricixt'?

It has been characteristic about the Great Recession that so relatively few countries have defaulted given the scale of the financial distress and the slump in economic activity. But it now seems to be changing. Greece this weekend moved dramatically closer to a sovereign default and the Ukrainian government has signaled that it could effectively default in July.

We need a mechanism for sovereign debt crisis resolution

We need a mechanism for sovereign debt crisis resolution

In the future I will be writing a weekly column for the Danish business daily Børsen. The first column appears in today's edition of the newspaper (you can read the article in Danish here). International news outlets and newspapers interested a syndication deal on my new weekly column are welcome to contact me (lacsen@gmail.com).

Remember the "Corralito"? Lessons on Greece and Argentina from the New York Times
How the RECOVERY will look like when Greece leaves the euro

How the RECOVERY will look like when Greece leaves the euro

Most indications are that Greece this weekend effectively has been pushed over edge by the collective failures of Greek and European policy makers. The combined forces of an European monetary straitjacket, the lack of a coherent European sovereign debt crisis resolution mechanism and weak Greek institutional structures and a lot of badwill on both sides of the issue in the end did it.

The end game or a new beginning for Greece? We have seen all this before

The end game or a new beginning for Greece? We have seen all this before

Ever since I started my blog in 2011 Greece has been on the verge of banking crisis, sovereign default and euro exit. It now looks as if we might get all of that very soon and very quickly.

Guest post: Europe’s problem is not a Greek drama but a medieval Calvinist morality play (by Mikio Kumada)

Guest post: Europe’s problem is not a Greek drama but a medieval Calvinist morality play (by Mikio Kumada)

I have asked my friend Mikio Kumada to write a guest post on blog on a topic he knows very well - the Greek crisis. While I do not agree with everything Mikio writes (I do agree with most of it) I think it is extremely important to get a broader and more insightful perspective on the Greek crisis (and the euro crisis) than the standard "Calvinist" version.

Awesome LEGOnomics – positive TFP shocks and the Danish economy

Awesome LEGOnomics – positive TFP shocks and the Danish economy

The Christensen family has been spending an awesome weekend at LEGO-land (Billund) so that is a good excuse for me to write a post on how to understand the impact of a corporate success story like LEGO on a small open economy with a pegged exchange rate regime like Denmark.

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