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How the RECOVERY will look like when Greece leaves the euro

How the RECOVERY will look like when Greece leaves the euro

Most indications are that Greece this weekend effectively has been pushed over edge by the collective failures of Greek and European policy makers. The combined forces of an European monetary straitjacket, the lack of a coherent European sovereign debt crisis resolution mechanism and weak Greek institutional structures and a lot of badwill on both sides of the issue in the end did it.

The end game or a new beginning for Greece? We have seen all this before

The end game or a new beginning for Greece? We have seen all this before

Ever since I started my blog in 2011 Greece has been on the verge of banking crisis, sovereign default and euro exit. It now looks as if we might get all of that very soon and very quickly.

Guest post: Europe’s problem is not a Greek drama but a medieval Calvinist morality play (by Mikio Kumada)

Guest post: Europe’s problem is not a Greek drama but a medieval Calvinist morality play (by Mikio Kumada)

I have asked my friend Mikio Kumada to write a guest post on blog on a topic he knows very well - the Greek crisis. While I do not agree with everything Mikio writes (I do agree with most of it) I think it is extremely important to get a broader and more insightful perspective on the Greek crisis (and the euro crisis) than the standard "Calvinist" version.

Awesome LEGOnomics – positive TFP shocks and the Danish economy

Awesome LEGOnomics – positive TFP shocks and the Danish economy

The Christensen family has been spending an awesome weekend at LEGO-land (Billund) so that is a good excuse for me to write a post on how to understand the impact of a corporate success story like LEGO on a small open economy with a pegged exchange rate regime like Denmark.

Even more optimistic thoughts about productivity growth, labour market flexibility and Secular Stagnation

Even more optimistic thoughts about productivity growth, labour market flexibility and Secular Stagnation

David Glasner has an excellent new blog post on why he is fairly optimistic on the outlook for productivity and the risk of "Secular Stagnation" in the US. The post contrast another blog post from Scott Sumner who argues the pessimistic case on US productivity.

The stock market remains at a “permanently high plateau”

The stock market remains at a “permanently high plateau”

Nearly a year ago I in a response to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s apparent concerns over the valuation of the US stock market argued – echoing Irving Fisher’s ill-fated views from 1929 – that the US stock market had reached a “permanently high plateau”.

Does Y determine MV or is it MV that determines P?

Does Y determine MV or is it MV that determines P?

Scott Sumner a couple of days ago wrote a post on the what he believes is a Great Stagnation story for the US. I don't agree with Scott about his pessimism about long-term US growth and I don't think he does a particularly good job arguing his case.

Kwanza devaluation is the right decision, but fundamental regime change is needed
Talking to my phone: The Gulf States should peg their FX rates to oil prices

Talking to my phone: The Gulf States should peg their FX rates to oil prices

Oops I did it again – this time I talk to my phone about monetary policy in the Gulf States and my suggestion that these countries should peg their currencies to the oil price or a basket of the oil price and the US dollar. This is of course what I have suggested should be termed the Export Price Norm (EPN). Have a look here.

St. Louis Fed's Bullard comes out in support of NGDP targeting

St. Louis Fed's Bullard comes out in support of NGDP targeting

St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard just came out in support of nominal GDP targeting - or rather he has co-authored a rather interesting new Working Paper, which concludes that NGDP targeting under some circumstances would be the best policy to pursue.

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