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The stock market remains at a “permanently high plateau”

The stock market remains at a “permanently high plateau”

Nearly a year ago I in a response to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s apparent concerns over the valuation of the US stock market argued – echoing Irving Fisher’s ill-fated views from 1929 – that the US stock market had reached a “permanently high plateau”.

Does Y determine MV or is it MV that determines P?

Does Y determine MV or is it MV that determines P?

Scott Sumner a couple of days ago wrote a post on the what he believes is a Great Stagnation story for the US. I don't agree with Scott about his pessimism about long-term US growth and I don't think he does a particularly good job arguing his case.

Kwanza devaluation is the right decision, but fundamental regime change is needed
Talking to my phone: The Gulf States should peg their FX rates to oil prices

Talking to my phone: The Gulf States should peg their FX rates to oil prices

Oops I did it again – this time I talk to my phone about monetary policy in the Gulf States and my suggestion that these countries should peg their currencies to the oil price or a basket of the oil price and the US dollar. This is of course what I have suggested should be termed the Export Price Norm (EPN). Have a look here.

St. Louis Fed's Bullard comes out in support of NGDP targeting

St. Louis Fed's Bullard comes out in support of NGDP targeting

St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard just came out in support of nominal GDP targeting - or rather he has co-authored a rather interesting new Working Paper, which concludes that NGDP targeting under some circumstances would be the best policy to pursue.

A random day in my global life - a celebration of free trade

A random day in my global life - a celebration of free trade

I am writing this on an American designed computer - probably assembled somewhere in China.

Yanis Varoufakis has a point - the Greek debt crisis is mostly about the collapse of NGDP

Yanis Varoufakis has a point - the Greek debt crisis is mostly about the collapse of NGDP

The Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has a new article for Project Syndicate. He is making a point that Market Monetarists have been making since the outbreak of the euro crisis - it is not really a 'debt crisis', but rather a monetary crisis.

Talking about the Polish economy on an airport escalator

Talking about the Polish economy on an airport escalator

Yes I readily admit it - I am begining to like to talk to my phone but obviously this might just be plain silly - talking about the Polish economy while on an escalator in Copenhagen airport.

Sunday notes - Three working papers and three prediction markets

Sunday notes - Three working papers and three prediction markets

It is Sunday morning and I really shouldn't be blogging, but I just have time to share a couple of working papers with you.

Mario, stay on track and avoid the mistakes of 1937 and 2011

Mario, stay on track and avoid the mistakes of 1937 and 2011

The global stock markets have been facing some headwinds recently, and there may be numerous reasons for this. One obvious one is the recent rebound in oil prices, which I believe is essentially driven by markets’ expectation that the Saudi-led global oil price war is now ending.

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