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This will not be a long post - I have had a busy week with a three-day roadshow in Poland and it is after all Saturday night - but it will be long enough to yet again point the fingers at the ECB for its deflationary policies.
Yesterday the Shadow Open Market Committee (SOMC) held its regular semi-annual meeting in New York.
This is my good friend Michael Darda speaking on Bloomberg TV about the ECB - needless to say I agree with everything he says.
Earlier this week Boston Fed chief Eric Rosengreen in an interview on CNBC said that the Federal Reserve could introduce a forth round of quantitative easing – QE4 – since the beginning of the crisis in 2008 if the outlook for the US economy worsens.
Oil prices are tumbling and so are inflation expectations so it is only natural to conclude that the drop in inflation expectations is caused by a positive supply shock – lower oil prices. However, that is not necessarily the case. In fact I believe it is wrong.
With the dollar continuing to strengthen and now the Japanese yen starting to take off as well central bankers in the US and Japan are likely increasingly becoming worried about the deflationary tendencies of stronger currencies and recent comments from both countries' central banks indicate that they will not allow their currencies to strengthen dramatically if it where to become deflationary.
Today the Federal Reserve published its much-hyped new Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).