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Earlier this week Boston Fed chief Eric Rosengreen in an interview on CNBC said that the Federal Reserve could introduce a forth round of quantitative easing – QE4 – since the beginning of the crisis in 2008 if the outlook for the US economy worsens.
Oil prices are tumbling and so are inflation expectations so it is only natural to conclude that the drop in inflation expectations is caused by a positive supply shock – lower oil prices. However, that is not necessarily the case. In fact I believe it is wrong.
With the dollar continuing to strengthen and now the Japanese yen starting to take off as well central bankers in the US and Japan are likely increasingly becoming worried about the deflationary tendencies of stronger currencies and recent comments from both countries' central banks indicate that they will not allow their currencies to strengthen dramatically if it where to become deflationary.
Today the Federal Reserve published its much-hyped new Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).
Today Leland Yeager is turning 90. Happy birthday!
I just read the latest depressing news about the Puerto Rican economy:
The news from the global currency markets this morning:
The dollar has continued to strengthen since early July - just take a look at the graph below:
Bubbles, bubbles, everywhere bubbles. There is a lot of talk about bubbles among commentators and central bankers. One of the most common bubble fears is a fear of a bubble in the US bond market (just take a look at this recent "bond bubble"-story). Generally I am very skeptical about all kinds of bubble fears and that also goes for the fear of a bubble in the US bond market.