ALL BLOG POSTS
Recently there has been a debate about whether low interest rates counterintuitively actually leads deflation. Narayana Kocherlakota, President of the Minneapolis Fed, made such an argument a couple of years ago (but seems to have changed his mind now) and it seems like BIS' Claudio Borio has been making an similar argument recently. Maybe surprisingly to some (market) monetarists will make a similar argument. We will just turn the argument upside down a bit. Let me explain.
Julien Noizet's blog 'Spontaneous Finance' in my view is the best blog out there on banking issues. Julien's blog often deals with the economic and financial impact of financial regulation. Noizet used to be a banking analyst for Fitch Rating so he surely should understands about credit risk and banking. I highly recommend to everybody interested in financial and banking regulation to follow Julien's excellent blog.
Any respectable economist should have a view on who will win the upcoming World Cup in football in Brazil. Therefore I of course also have a view on this.
The last couple of months have been quite busy for me with a lot of traveling and particularly the Ukrainian crisis has taken a lot of time so I have not had enough time - or energy - to blog. But don't worry - I hope that I soon will be back to getting more blog posts out every week. After all as long as we have central banks monetary policy failure is a given and I love to blog about it - even when it makes me very angry.
Scott Sumner has a great post on the very scary state of US housing finance. This is something that many Europeans might not realise, but when it comes to housing finance the US is likely one of the most socialist countries among the developed economies of the world.
This morning we got strong GDP numbers from Japan for Q1. The numbers show that it is primarily domestic demand - private consumption and investment - rather than exports, which drive growth.
Most economists pay little or no attention to nominal GDP when they think (and talk) about the business cycle, but if they had to explain how nominal GDP is determined they would likely mostly talk about NGDP as a quasi-residual. First real GDP is determined - by both supply and demand side factors - and then inflation is simply added to get to NGDP.
As geopolitical tensions in Ukraine have been rising I have found myself thinking about the impact of such events on markets and economies. One thing is to understand what is actually going on and another thing is to understand the economics of such events. How are geopolitical tension or terror impacting investment and consumption decision?
When I started working in the financial sector nearly 15 years ago – after 5 years working for government – one thing that really puzzled me was how my new colleagues (both analysts and traders) where thinking about exchange rates.