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According to the history books one of the most scary events during the Cold War was the so-called Cuban missile crisis, where according to the history books the world was on the brink of nuclear armageddon.
This morning I am flying to Finland to speak about the outlook the Polish economy at a seminar in Helsinki. That is the inspiration for what I will talk about in this post - or rather I will tell the story of how an asymmetrical negative supply shock - combined with euro membership - has sent the Finnish economy into recession. It is (partly) a story of the demise of Finland's best known company Nokia.
I am getting a new (work) computer so I have been doing a bit of clean up on my old computer. While doing the clean-up I came across the following list that I apperantly did at some point.
In my previous blog post I outlined a four-equation model to be used for real-world macroeconomic forecasting. In today’s post I will look a bit closer at one of these equations - or rather I will discuss how we can think about forecasting the supply side of the economy.
Most economists who have worked as macro economists for governments, central bank or commercial banks will sooner or later be engaged in doing macroeconomic forecasting.
There is a lot of focus on what Russian President Vladimir Putin is saying these days. However, it is mostly about geopolitics and much less about his views on economics and particularly on central banking. However, I came across some interesting comments from Putin on monetary policy, which quite well illustrates some of the problems with his – or rather his lack of – economic thinking.
A couple of days ago Scott Sumner had an interesting post on the theme “It’s policy regime that needs fixing”.
I have long been a proponent of what I have called the Export Price Norm (EPN). The idea with EPN is that commodity exporting countries can ensure stable nominal spending growth by pegging their currency to either the price of the country’s main export good or to a basket of the export product and a foreign currency.