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Giles Wilkes is back!

Giles Wilkes is back!

Here is some good news for the blog readers, but some bad news for the UK government - my friend Giles Wilkes has left the UK government and is now back in the real life and more importantly he is back blogging. I highly recommend to everybody to follow Giles' blog Freethinking Economist - A voice of reason against illiberal nonsense.

"God forbid that our policy should ever work"

"God forbid that our policy should ever work"

This is Mario Draghi at the ECB's press conference yesterday:

The massively negative euro zone 'money gap' (another one graph version)

The massively negative euro zone 'money gap' (another one graph version)

Earlier today I put out post with 'one graph' illustrating just how much behind the curve the ECB is in terms of needed monetary easing. At the core of that blog post was a graph of the 'price gap'. I defined the price gap as the percentage difference between the actual price level (measured with the GDP deflator) and a 2% path.

Leszek Balcerowicz on Poland's success and Christensen on Balcerowicz's success

Leszek Balcerowicz on Poland's success and Christensen on Balcerowicz's success

For the past soon 15 year I have followed the economic development in Poland very closely and have visited the country very often. I have come to love the country and the Poles so I rejoice these days as Poland celebrates the 25 year anniversary of Poland's first (partly) free election on June 4 1989. The democratic revolution opened the floodgates for free market reforms across the former communist countries in Central and Eastern Europe.

The ECB is way behind the curve (the one graph version)

The ECB is way behind the curve (the one graph version)

The ECB is today widely expected to introduce a number of measures to ease monetary conditions in the euro zone and it seems like the ECB is finally beginning to recognize the serious deflationary risks facing the euro zone.

A clean break with Hollande (A lesson for Piketty)

A clean break with Hollande (A lesson for Piketty)

Over the past week we have had reports of the deteriorating state of public finances in France and particular the drop in tax revenues. It seems like Hollande's steep tax increases are not bringing in any extra revenue. President Hollande has been hit right in the face by the Laffer curve.

Committed to a failing strategy: low for longer = deflation for longer?

Committed to a failing strategy: low for longer = deflation for longer?

Recently there has been a debate about whether low interest rates counterintuitively actually leads deflationNarayana Kocherlakota, President of the Minneapolis Fed, made such an argument a couple of years ago (but seems to have changed his mind now) and it seems like BIS' Claudio Borio has been making an similar argument recently. Maybe surprisingly to some (market) monetarists will make a similar argument. We will just turn the argument upside down a bit. Let me explain. 

Julien Noizet on banking regulation and 'the importance of intragroup funding'

Julien Noizet on banking regulation and 'the importance of intragroup funding'

Julien Noizet's blog 'Spontaneous Finance' in my view is the best blog out there on banking issues. Julien's blog often deals with the economic and financial impact of financial regulation. Noizet used to be a banking analyst for Fitch Rating so he surely should understands about credit risk and banking. I highly recommend to everybody interested in financial and banking regulation to follow Julien's excellent blog.

I just ran a million simulations of the World Cup - Brazil won 450,000 times

I just ran a million simulations of the World Cup - Brazil won 450,000 times

Any respectable economist should have a view on who will win the upcoming World Cup in football in Brazil. Therefore I of course also have a view on this.

Hitler's Highways and UK monetary policy - two interesting working papers

Hitler's Highways and UK monetary policy - two interesting working papers

The last couple of months have been quite busy for me with a lot of traveling and particularly the Ukrainian crisis has taken a lot of time so I have not had enough time - or energy - to blog. But don't worry - I hope that I soon will be back to getting more blog posts out every week. After all as long as we have central banks monetary policy failure is a given and I love to blog about it - even when it makes me very angry.

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