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A framework for applied macroeconomic forecasting (part 1)

A framework for applied macroeconomic forecasting (part 1)

Most economists who have worked as macro economists for governments, central bank or commercial banks will sooner or later be engaged in doing macroeconomic forecasting.

Putin’s hopes for monetary miracles

Putin’s hopes for monetary miracles

There is a lot of focus on what Russian President Vladimir Putin is saying these days. However, it is mostly about geopolitics and much less about his views on economics and particularly on central banking. However, I came across some interesting comments from Putin on monetary policy, which quite well illustrates some of the problems with his – or rather his lack of – economic thinking.

Revisiting the discretionary decision to introduce rules

Revisiting the discretionary decision to introduce rules

A couple of days ago Scott Sumner had an interesting post on the theme “It’s policy regime that needs fixing”.

This is how worried Dr. Copper is about the Chinese economy  (the one graph version)
Recession time for Russia - the ultra wonkish version

Recession time for Russia - the ultra wonkish version

I have long been a proponent of what I have called the Export Price Norm (EPN). The idea with EPN is that commodity exporting countries can ensure stable nominal spending growth by pegging their currency to either the price of the country’s main export good or to a basket of the export product and a foreign currency.

A dead hamster, some dead dictators, my birthday...and an iron curtain

A dead hamster, some dead dictators, my birthday...and an iron curtain

March 5th is my birthday (yes, I am turning 43 today)

My interview on Radio Free Europe about Ukraine/Russia

My interview on Radio Free Europe about Ukraine/Russia

As geo-political tensions continue to increase and all eyes are on Ukraine I have been very busy analysing and talking about the impact on the markets and the global economy.

Who is regulating the regulators?

Who is regulating the regulators?

I just found a reference to this sensational new Working Paper - "Stock Picking Skills of SEC Employees" - by Shivaram Rajgopal and Roger M. White. This is the abstract:

Book of the day - "Fragile by Design"

Book of the day - "Fragile by Design"

I have waited for this book for a while, but yesterday it finally arrived in the mail. It is Fragile by Design by Charles Calomiris and Stephen Haber.

A Crimean style aggregate supply shock

A Crimean style aggregate supply shock

It has been a busy couple of weeks for me. It is events in particularly Ukraine, Turkey and partly Venezuela that have kept me very busy so there has not been much time or energy for blogging.

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