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As geopolitical tensions in Ukraine have been rising I have found myself thinking about the impact of such events on markets and economies. One thing is to understand what is actually going on and another thing is to understand the economics of such events. How are geopolitical tension or terror impacting investment and consumption decision?
When I started working in the financial sector nearly 15 years ago – after 5 years working for government – one thing that really puzzled me was how my new colleagues (both analysts and traders) where thinking about exchange rates.
Today I talked to an Israeli friend about the state of the Israeli economy and particularly about the importance of monetary policy. One can really characterise the Israeli economy as being 'boring' in the sense that growth, inflation and markets have been quite stable in recent years - despite of the "normal" political (and geopolitical) uncertainty in Israel.
Some economists get the reputation of always being negative (or positive). I myself have been struggling with that imagine, but have been trying to get rid of it - If you are constantly bearish on the world you will often be wrong. However, ultra-bearishness can be a good "media strategy". Somebody who is known as an über-bear Nouriel Roubini aka Dr. Doom.
I got this from Erwan Mahé's excellent newsletter Thaler's Corner:
Mark Perry at the American Enterprise Institute provides a great overview of the Hoover Institution’s “Collected Works of Milton Friedman”.
Lund University (in Skåne, Sweden) is less than one hour drive from my home in Copenhagen so I very much hope I will be able to participate in the upcoming conference on "Free Banking systems: diversity in financial and economic growth" at Lund University School of Economics and Management on September 4 – 5 2014. Furthermore, the conference will hopefully lure monetary scholars to Copenhagen as well. I will certainly see whether we could arrange some informal get-together in Copenhagen in connection with the conference.
From the day I started my blog I have always been happy to invite other economists to contribute to my blog with guest posts.
According to the history books one of the most scary events during the Cold War was the so-called Cuban missile crisis, where according to the history books the world was on the brink of nuclear armageddon.
This morning I am flying to Finland to speak about the outlook the Polish economy at a seminar in Helsinki. That is the inspiration for what I will talk about in this post - or rather I will tell the story of how an asymmetrical negative supply shock - combined with euro membership - has sent the Finnish economy into recession. It is (partly) a story of the demise of Finland's best known company Nokia.