ALL BLOG POSTS
Remember when then Bank of Japan last year initiated its unprecedented program of monetary easing most commentators saw that as an attempt to wage currency war to boost Japanese exports? I instead stressed that the "export channel" was not likely to be what would drag Japan out of the deflationary trap. Rather I stressed the importance of domestic demand.
Argentina is an economic basket case. It is that simple. The country never seems to be able to emerge from its problems. The key reason is that the country is extremely weak constitutionally and institutionally and as a result the country has some of the worst policy makers in Latin America (if not in the world).
During Christmas and New Years I have been able to (nearly) not think about monetary policy and economics, but I nonetheless came across some comments from Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann from last week, which made me think about the connection between monetary policy rules and fiscal austerity in the euro zone. I will try address these issues in this post.
As year is coming to an end I am sure that a lot of you like myself are reflecting on life and the world you live in. Here is a bit of what I have been thinking about this year and about what I think will be my focus in my blogging in the coming year.
My recent post on the suggestion for a Basic Income Guarantee (BIG) made me think of an idea I have been toying with for some time on how to privatize natural resources. Specifically I came to think of a suggestion for privatization of the Venezuelan energy sector, which I made some time ago in connection with my post on "A modest proposal for post-Chavez monetary reform in Venezuela".
Imagine that US non-farm payrolls were growing by 400k/month (that is how strong the UK labour market is)
My Danske Bank colleague Anders Vestergård Fischer had a fun idea today - he wanted to "translate" the latest UK labour market numbers into something an US audience could understand.
It has been said that the recent decline in European inflation to a large extent is due to a positive supply shock. This is to some extent correct and it is something I have acknowledged on a number of occassions. However, the main deflationary problem comes from the demand side of the European economy and the fact that monetary policy remains extremely tight in the euro zone is the main cause of the deflationary pressures in the European economy. A simple (but incomplete) way to strip out supply side effects from the price level is to look at the GDP deflator. This is what I here have done for Greece. This is the horror graph of the day - it is the level of the Greek GDP deflator relative to the pre-crisis trend (2000-7).
Nobel laureate Christopher Pissarides earlier this week gave a lecture at the London School of Economics on the theme "Is Europe Working?". It is an extremely interesting lecture. I disagree with a lot of what professor Pissarides is saying. He focuses far too much on fiscal policy issues and far too little on monetary policy. But it is in general a very enlightened lecture and he raises a number of extremely important questions about the future of the euro zone.