ALL BLOG POSTS
In my previous blog post I outlined a four-equation model to be used for real-world macroeconomic forecasting. In today’s post I will look a bit closer at one of these equations - or rather I will discuss how we can think about forecasting the supply side of the economy.
Most economists who have worked as macro economists for governments, central bank or commercial banks will sooner or later be engaged in doing macroeconomic forecasting.
There is a lot of focus on what Russian President Vladimir Putin is saying these days. However, it is mostly about geopolitics and much less about his views on economics and particularly on central banking. However, I came across some interesting comments from Putin on monetary policy, which quite well illustrates some of the problems with his – or rather his lack of – economic thinking.
A couple of days ago Scott Sumner had an interesting post on the theme “It’s policy regime that needs fixing”.
I have long been a proponent of what I have called the Export Price Norm (EPN). The idea with EPN is that commodity exporting countries can ensure stable nominal spending growth by pegging their currency to either the price of the country’s main export good or to a basket of the export product and a foreign currency.
March 5th is my birthday (yes, I am turning 43 today)
As geo-political tensions continue to increase and all eyes are on Ukraine I have been very busy analysing and talking about the impact on the markets and the global economy.