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Richard Fisher and the "working men and women of America"

Richard Fisher and the "working men and women of America"

This is Richard Fisher, President of Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas:

Toilet paper shortage is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon
Guest post: Central bankers should watch the Eurovision (by Jens Pedersen)

Guest post: Central bankers should watch the Eurovision (by Jens Pedersen)

Guest post: Central bankers should watch the Eurovision

The monetary transmission mechanism in a 'perfect world'

The monetary transmission mechanism in a 'perfect world'

I fundamentally think that what really sets Market Monetarism aside from other macroeconomic schools it how we see the monetary transmission mechanism. I this blog post I will try to describe how I think the monetary transmission mechanism would look like in a ‘perfect world’ and how in such a perfect world the central bank basically would do nothing at all and changes in monetary conditions would be nearly 100% determined by market forces.

Russia's slowdown - another domestic demand story

Russia's slowdown - another domestic demand story

Today I am in to Moscow to do a presentation on the Russian economy. It will be yet another chance to tell one of my pet-stories and that is that growth in nominal GDP in Russia is basically determined by the price of oil measured in rubles. Furthermore, I will stress that changes in the oil price feeds through to the Russian economy not primarily through net exports, but through domestic demand. This is what I earlier have termed the petro-monetary transmission mechanism.

Lower (supply) inflation is NOT a reason to ease US monetary policy
We told you so - the two graph version

We told you so - the two graph version

The Market Monetarist "textbook" will tell you two things:

Bennett McCallum told "my" Kuroda story a decade ago

Bennett McCallum told "my" Kuroda story a decade ago

From to time I will make an argument and then later realize that it really wasn't my own independently thought out argument, but rather a "reproduction" of something I once read. Often it would be Milton Friedman who has been my inspiration, however, Friedman is certainly not my only inspiration.

The Kuroda recovery will be about domestic demand and not about exports

The Kuroda recovery will be about domestic demand and not about exports

There has been a lot of focus on the fact that USD/JPY has now broken above 100 and that the slide in the yen is going to have a positive impact on Japanese exports. In fact it seems like most commentators and economists think that the easing of monetary policy we have seen in Japan is about the exchange rate and the impact on Japanese "competitiveness". I think this focus is completely wrong.

Monetary policy works just fine - Exhibit 14743: The case of Japanese earnings

Monetary policy works just fine - Exhibit 14743: The case of Japanese earnings

The graph below shows the ratio of upward to downward revisions of equity analysts' earnings forecasts in different countries. I stole the graph from Walter Kurtz at Sober Look. Walter himself got the data from Merrill Lynch.

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