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The impossibility of currency forecasting and why we try anyway

The impossibility of currency forecasting and why we try anyway

We don't think we can beat the market, but we can make FX forecast that is as good as the market. What do you think?

Global Monetary Conditions Monitor is now available for academics

Global Monetary Conditions Monitor is now available for academics

We have decided to make the Global Monetary Conditions Monitor available to researchers, academics and universities at a reduced price. As of today, we will offer single subscriptions to academic institutions, think tanks, and individual researchers for EUR 1,000 for a 12-month subscription.

A wake-up call for the Riksbank

A wake-up call for the Riksbank

Swedish inflation surprised significantly on the upside in April. This should be a wake-up call for the Riksbank, but will it also now move in a more hawkish direction?

Norwegian inflation surprises on the downside

Norwegian inflation surprises on the downside

April Core inflation (CPI-ATE) was 1.7%y/y in April – slightly down from 1.8%y/y in March (seasonally adjusted). Read our comments and see our updated inflation forecast for Norway.

 The drop in the oil price is all about Yellen's rate hikes

The drop in the oil price is all about Yellen's rate hikes

The big story in the markets overnight has been the drop in oil prices. We believe the decline in oil prices primarily is about Fed rate hikes.

Read our lips – no more Fed hikes

Read our lips – no more Fed hikes

Today's US PCE core inflation numbers strengthens the case for NO rate hikes from the Fed in 2017

Global Monetary Conditions Monitor: No more rate hikes from the Fed in 2017

Global Monetary Conditions Monitor: No more rate hikes from the Fed in 2017

We have published the second edition of Global Monetary Conditions Monitor. Read more here.

Tunisia moving closer to a free float - good news

Tunisia moving closer to a free float - good news

Yesterday the Tunisian central bank hiked its key policy rate by 50bp to 4.75%. The decision comes on the back of the recent weakening of the Tunisian dinar. The weakening reflects the deliberate decision of the Tunisian government and central bank to allow for a more freely floating dinar. Overall we think this decision is very good and the IMF supports the decision. The main challenge for the Tunisian central bank now is to formulate a clear and coherent monetary policy framework to ensure nominal stability.

Did Bank of Canada just crash the Canadian property market?

Did Bank of Canada just crash the Canadian property market?

For some time we have warned Canadian monetary conditions have become excessively tight - we might now be seeing the consequences of that. The Bank of Canada urgently need to ease monetary policy to avoid a recession and potentially also financial distress.

Explainer: The end of the 'Trump boom'

Explainer: The end of the 'Trump boom'

Watch Lars Christensen explain why the 'Trump boom' is running out of steam.

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