ALL BLOG POSTS
We don't think we can beat the market, but we can make FX forecast that is as good as the market. What do you think?
We have decided to make the Global Monetary Conditions Monitor available to researchers, academics and universities at a reduced price. As of today, we will offer single subscriptions to academic institutions, think tanks, and individual researchers for EUR 1,000 for a 12-month subscription.
Swedish inflation surprised significantly on the upside in April. This should be a wake-up call for the Riksbank, but will it also now move in a more hawkish direction?
April Core inflation (CPI-ATE) was 1.7%y/y in April – slightly down from 1.8%y/y in March (seasonally adjusted). Read our comments and see our updated inflation forecast for Norway.
The big story in the markets overnight has been the drop in oil prices. We believe the decline in oil prices primarily is about Fed rate hikes.
Today's US PCE core inflation numbers strengthens the case for NO rate hikes from the Fed in 2017
We have published the second edition of Global Monetary Conditions Monitor. Read more here.
Yesterday the Tunisian central bank hiked its key policy rate by 50bp to 4.75%. The decision comes on the back of the recent weakening of the Tunisian dinar. The weakening reflects the deliberate decision of the Tunisian government and central bank to allow for a more freely floating dinar. Overall we think this decision is very good and the IMF supports the decision. The main challenge for the Tunisian central bank now is to formulate a clear and coherent monetary policy framework to ensure nominal stability.
For some time we have warned Canadian monetary conditions have become excessively tight - we might now be seeing the consequences of that. The Bank of Canada urgently need to ease monetary policy to avoid a recession and potentially also financial distress.