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Markets are telling us where NGDP growth is heading

Markets are telling us where NGDP growth is heading

I am still in Provo Utah and even though I have had a busy time I have watch a bit of Bloomberg TV and CNBC over the last couple of days (to fight my jet lag). I have noticed some very puzzling comments from commentators. There have been one special theme and that has come up again and again over the last couple of days among the commentators on US financial TV and that is that "yeah, monetary easing might be positive for the markets, but it is not have any impact on the real economy". This is a story about disconnect between the economy and the markets.

The Hetzel-Ireland Synthesis

The Hetzel-Ireland Synthesis

I am writing this while I am flying with Delta Airlines over the Atlantic. I will be speaking about the European crisis at a seminar on Friday at Brigham Young University in Provo, Utah.

The (mobile) market just solved Zimbabwe's "coin problem"
An empirical - not a theoretical - disagreement with George, Larry and Eli

An empirical - not a theoretical - disagreement with George, Larry and Eli

Last week George Selgin warned us (the Market Monetarists) about getting to excited about the recent actions of the Federal Reserve. Now fellow Free Banker Larry White raises a similar critique in a post on freebanking.org.

Bernanke, Obama and the political business cycle - and some research ideas

Bernanke, Obama and the political business cycle - and some research ideas

This week I attended a presentation by my good friend and professor of political science at the University Copenhagen Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard about the upcoming US presidential elections. In his presentation Peter presented some of his models for predicting the outcome of US presidential elections.

Kocherlakota's revelation

Kocherlakota's revelation

This is from Bloomberg:

Our pal George tells us not to rest on our laurels

Our pal George tells us not to rest on our laurels

Even though George Selgin never said he was a Market Monetarists – he dislikes labels like that – he is awfully close to being a Market Monetarist and many of us are certainly Selginians. So when George speaks we all tend to listen.

The eagle has landed - Bob Hetzel visits Denmark

The eagle has landed - Bob Hetzel visits Denmark

It is rather seldom we get worldclass economists to Copenhagen, but in the coming week that is going to change as Robert Hetzel is in town. The Danish free market think tank Cepos has invited Bob to speak a seminar tomorrow (Monday) night. I will certainly make sure to be there!

The fiscal cliff and the Bernanke-Evans rule in a simple static IS/LM model

The fiscal cliff and the Bernanke-Evans rule in a simple static IS/LM model

Sometimes simple macroeconomic models can help us understand the world better and even though I am not uncritical about the IS/LM model it nonetheless has some interesting features which from time to time makes it useful for policy analysis (if you are careful).

The Bernanke rule looks like a Evans rule

The Bernanke rule looks like a Evans rule

We nearly got what Market Monetarists have been asking for - the Federal Reserve now have a relatively clear defined target and it will implement it through changes to the money base (by buying Mortgage backed securities). It is not a NGDP level target, but probably more a light version of the Mankiw rule or the so-called Evans rule.

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