ALL BLOG POSTS

Guest blog: Why Price-Level Targeting Pareto Dominates Inflation Targeting (By David Eagle)

Guest blog: Why Price-Level Targeting Pareto Dominates Inflation Targeting (By David Eagle)

Guest blog: Why Price-Level Targeting Pareto Dominates Inflation Targeting

Prediction markets and government budget forecasts

Prediction markets and government budget forecasts

Recently I have had a couple of posts (here and here) on biases in the forecasts of policy makers and why central banks and governments should use prediction markets to do forecasting instead of relying on in-house forecasts that might or might not be biased due to for example political pressures.

Please fasten your seatbelt and try to beat the market

Please fasten your seatbelt and try to beat the market

Scott Sumner and other Market Monetarists (including myself) favour the use of NGDP futures to guide monetary policy. Other than being forward-looking a policy based on market information ensures that the forecast of the future development is not biased – in the market place biases will cost you on the bottom-line. Similarly, I have earlier suggested that central banks should use prediction markets to do forecasting rather rely on in-house forecasts that potentially could be biased due to political pressures.

Let the Fed target a Quasi-Real PCE Price Index (QRPCE)

Let the Fed target a Quasi-Real PCE Price Index (QRPCE)

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it would target a long-run inflation target of 2%. Some of my blogging Market Monetarist friends are not too happy about this – See Scott Sumner and Marcus Nunes. But I have an idea that might bring the Fed very close to the Market Monetarist position without having to go back on the comments from Wednesday.

Dinner with Bob Chitester

Dinner with Bob Chitester

I don't have a lot of time for blogging this week as I will be busy with a number of dinner arrangements - both fun and business.

It's time to get rid of the ”representative agent" in monetary theory

It's time to get rid of the ”representative agent" in monetary theory

“Tis vain to talk of adding quantities which after the addition will continue to be as distinct as they were before; one man’s happiness will never be another man’s happiness: a gain to one man is no gain to another: you might as well pretend to add 20 apples to 20 pears.”

Allan Meltzer's great advice for the Federal Reserve

Allan Meltzer's great advice for the Federal Reserve

Here is Allan Meltzer's great advice on US monetary policy:

There is no such thing as fiscal policy – and that goes for Japan as well

There is no such thing as fiscal policy – and that goes for Japan as well

Scott Sumner has a comment on Japan’s ”lost decades” and the importance of fiscal policy in Japan. Scott acknowledges based on comments from Paul Krugman and Tim Duy that in fact Japan has not had two lost decades. Scott also discusses whether fiscal policy has been helpful in reviving growth in the past decade in Japan.

Guest Blog: The Two Fundamental Welfare Principles of Monetary Economics (By David Eagle)

Guest Blog: The Two Fundamental Welfare Principles of Monetary Economics (By David Eagle)

I am extremely happy that David Eagle is continuing his series of guest blogs on my blog.

There is no such thing as fiscal policy

There is no such thing as fiscal policy

It can be rather traumatic for children to see their parents fight. I feel a bit like that when I see two of my heroes Scott Sumner and David Glasner discuss fiscal policy. The whole thing started with Scott picking a fight with a couple of Keynesians. To be frank that discussion really didn’t turn me on and even though I read most of what Scott writes this was not a discussion that I was particularly interested in. And it is certainly not my plan to address what the discussion really is about – let me just say I think Scott makes it unusually complicated – even though I think he is right (I guess…). Instead I will try to explain my view of fiscal policy or rather to explain why I think there really is no such thing as fiscal policy - at least not in the sense that Keynesians talk about it.

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