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It is often argued that falling and low interest rates sparked a global housing bubble. However, the empirical evidence of this is actually quite weak and the development in global property markets is undoubtedly much more complicated than often argued in the media - and by some economists.
Here is Scott Sumner:
Guest Blog - The Integral Reviews: Paper 2 - Ball (1999)
Here is Alan Greenspan in Testimony February 16 2005:
As traditional monetarists Market Monetarists see money as being at the centre of macroeconomic discussion. To us both inflation and recessions are monetary phenomena. If central banks print too much money we get inflation and if they print to little money we get recession or even depression.
One thing that has always frustrated me about the Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT) is that it is assumes that “new money” is injected into the economy via the banking sector and many of the results in the model is dependent this assumption. Something Ludwig von Mises by the way acknowledges openly in for example "Human Action".
I have spend my entire career as an economist doing forecasting – both of macroeconomic numbers and of financial markets. First as a government economist and then later as a financial sector economist. I think I have done quite well, but I also know that I only rarely am able to beat the market “consensus”. If I beat the market 51% of the time then I think I am worth my money. This probably is a surprise to most none-economists, but it is common knowledge to economists that we really can’t beat the markets consistently.
Believe it or not I have published 200 posts since I started blogging in early October. I have written most of the blog posts myself, but I have also been lucky with some very good guest bloggers who have contributed to the blog. I plan to continue to invite people to write on my blog as I want to create a good open forum for discussion of monetary matters. That said, my blog is not a “democratic” forum. I decide who will be contributing and nobody else.
I never thought I would mention the Danish movie director Lars von Trier in one of my posts, but here we go. After all I am Danish and I share the first name with von Trier.